This has led to a knowledge gap in terms of an ecologically and/or hydrologically meaningful characterization of changes of precipitation variability. Such predictions are important for well-informed adaptation and mitigation decision-making, yet there is also a need to investigate whether the perturbed precipitation patterns will become more or less predictable (in terms of how seasonal precipitation pattern fluctuate inter-annually) for natural adaptation to take place. Current efforts assessing climate change-induced precipitation redistribution focus on long-term temporal trends and seasonal patterns.
Changes in precipitation fluctuation and seasonality will affect resource availability, which will ultimately impact biodiversity and the decisions to manage hydrological, agricultural, and ecological systems. We are currently observing rapid changes in Earth’s hydrological cycle, and plans for optimizing societal infrastructural and environmental resilience in the face of future changes depend on the proper descriptions of future precipitation fluctuation and seasonality at the regional scale in this rapidly changing world 1. As projected by the Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United States (US) National Climate Assessment 1, 2, precipitation in the US is expected to change in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous manner in the 21 st century 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. Changes in precipitation predictability and the subsequent changes on seasonality and variability are equally, if not more, important factors to be included in future regional environmental assessment.Ĭhanges in precipitation associated with future climate change will strongly impact ecological processes and the utilization of ecosystem services. Therefore, decision-makers are advised to not rely on future total precipitation as an indicator of water resources. Finally, there are region-specific hotspots of future changes in precipitation predictability, and these hotspots often coincide with regions of little projected change in total precipitation, with exceptions along the wetter East and parts of the drier central West. Comparing the future (2040–2095) to the historic period, larger changes in precipitation predictability are observed under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 than those under RCP 4.5. Over the historic period (1950–2005), the recurrent pattern of precipitation is highly predictable in the East and along the coastal Northwest, and is less so in the arid Southwest. Using the Colwell index of predictability and monthly normalized precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensembles, this study identifies spatial hotspots of changes in precipitation predictability in the United States under various climate scenarios. Characterizing precipitation seasonality and variability in the face of future uncertainty is important for a well-informed climate change adaptation strategy.
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